ISIS: Back from the Dead or Never Gone?

Since October 7th, terrorists have seemingly been emboldened. There has been an upsurge of attacks by several groups and lone wolves affiliated with groups ranging from the Philippines to Africa to Russia. In Idaho, an 18-year old planned a thankfully foiled attack on churchgoers. After ISIS-K attacked a crowded concert in Moscow, the FBI believes there is cause for concern over a coordinated attack in America. This begs the question: is ISIS making a comeback? Actually, they never really disappeared. 

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Islamic State Activity in Africa

When most people think of ISIS, they think of the mid-2010s caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Though there are still militants operating in that region, the Islamic State stronghold has shifted continents. The UN chief has dubbed Africa the “global epicenter” of terrorism. Though Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab is waging a bloody campaign in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, half of all terrorism-related deaths globally occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. A splinter of Boko Haram, ISIS West Africa Province (ISWAP), is currently raining Hell upon West Africa. 

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Like their Boko Haram forefathers, they have a penchant for kidnapping children, especially girls, in schools, and women and children from camps from displaced people. In Nigeria, they have partnered with bandit gangs to raise funds. The group commits atrocities ranging from burning villages to the ground to publicly executing those that do not pledge allegiance to them. Though they hold the ISIS vision of a global caliphate, their actions have been contained within several countries in West Africa. 

However, they bring another problem. American troops have a presence in West Africa both training troops and conducting counterterrorism operations. However, the Wagner Group branch, Africa Corps has their claws in the region. In Mali, there have been reports of mass human rights violations at the hands of “white soldiers” since the 2022 arrival of the Wagner Group. Earlier this month, Niger formally requested for America to withdraw its forces. A week after this request, there were Wagner boots on the ground. Wagner Group presence in the region has been co-opted into ISIS recruitment propaganda. Videos have circulated of ISWAP members bragging about killing “Wagner mercenaries” and accusing them of waging war against Muslims. Now, West Africa struggles with two of America’s greatest fears: Russian influence and jihadi terror. 

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ISIS Khorasan Province (ISIS-K)

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Formed by Taliban defectors around 2015, ISIS-K is the Islamic State’s Central Asian wilayat. This group is responsible for the August 2021 HKIA airport attack, claiming the lives of 13 American service members, over 170 Afghans, and injuring at least 200 others. The group is currently clashing with the Taliban over a difference in beliefs, as they view the Taliban as not extreme enough. The Taliban only seeks to enact Sharia law in Afghanistan, while ISIS-K seeks to form a global caliphate. The groups will regularly attack the mosques that senior members of the opposition attend. Until recently, the group has stayed out of the headlines. Last month, the group orchestrated an attack on a Moscow concert hall, killing 137 and injuring at least 100. Between Wagner Group activity in Africa and Putin’s partnering with Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, it is no surprise that Russia is an enemy of the Islamic State. This attack indicates the group’s ability to expand its reach outside of Central Asia. 

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Conclusion

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Despite the GWOT being “officially over”, the jihadi terror threat remains. Groups are being funded, fighters are training, and people are joining. Because the Islamic State is not targeting American interests in its previous capacity, it is not making headlines. However, the current perfect storm of international instability and domestic polarization creates an environment ideal for radicalization.

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