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This week, Syrian rebels captured several major cities before reaching Damascus, marking the end of the 50-year long Assad regime. Dictator Bashar al-Assad has allegedly fled to Russia, leaving a wide open power vacuum in the region.
Assad Regime
The regime began in 1971 when military officer and Syrian Arab Socialist Ba’ath party member Hafez al-Assad became the 18th president of Syria. Valuing loyalty over policy, he frequently ended the careers of any colleagues who were critical of him. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Islamist groups grew increasingly disillusioned with the Ba’athist party. Insurgent groups began committing acts of guerilla warfare in cities including Aleppo and Hama. Assad’s government reacted with a vengeance. Being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood became a capital offense. Islamic prisoners were indiscriminately killed. In 1982, the Syrian government used tanks, helicopters, and artillery against civilians in the city of Hama. This uprising provided justification to continue a totalitarian style of governance. Upon his death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad took over.
Like his father, Bashar al-Assad ran a totalitarian government marred with human rights abuses. Despite being openly critical of America’s involvement in Afghanistan, Assad worked closely with the CIA to combat Al-Qaeda, as he viewed militant Islam as an existential threat to his regime. Later, the CIA backed anti-Assad rebel groups. In 2005, Lebanon’s prime minister Rafic Hariri was killed in an explosion. It was suspected that Assad was behind this killing, leading to an uprising in Lebanon, subsequently ending Syria’s 29 years of military occupation in the region. A UN report indicated that Assad was indeed involved in the killing. In 2007, Assad won another 7-year term. As the Arab Spring raged through the Middle East and North Africa, protests calling for government reform popped up through Syria. The government promptly responded with violence, killing, beating, and imprisoning people, including children.
After America, Canada, and EU members enacted sanctions, and multiple world leaders called for him to step down from leadership, Assad promised a reformed government and urged refugees to return home from Turkey. However, he went back on these promises, and military action only intensified as the country struggled to contain the threat of the Islamic State. Russia then began to back the Assad regime. State sponsored brutality continued, including chemical warfare being used against civilians. Despite much opposition, Assad won another election in 2021. On November 27th, 2024, rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led an offensive against Syrian government forces. Though led by HTS, other rebel factions participated. They began by capturing Aleppo, resulting in an airstrike by Syria and Russia. Distracted by the ongoing Russ-Ukrainian war, Russians did not provide ample aid to Assad’s forces. HTS continued to seize several other cities, before finally taking control of Damascus. Assad fled to Russia under “humanitarian reasons.”
HTS and Other Groups
HTS is a militant Islamist group that has been designated as a terrorist organization since 2018. Its founder, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani joined foreign fighters in Iraq in 2003 after the US-led invasion. In 2011, former ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent Jolani to Syria to form the Al-Nusra front, a faction of Al-Qaeda. Baghdadi then urged Jolani to have the Nusra Front merged with ISIS. Instead, he pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, which later fought against ISIS. The Nusra Front officially became the Syrian Al-Qaeda. In 2017, he severed ties with Al-Qaeda, and renamed the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Though it is still a militant Islamic group and designated as a foreign terror organization (FTO), Jolani has attempted to rebrand the group as a moderate anti-Assad rebel group.
HTS is not the only group combatting Assad in Syria. In the east of Turkey, US-backed Kurdish forces, including the famed YPJ, fight off armed groups including ISIS. Around 900 US troops are stationed with the Kurds in this region. Turkey, a long time adversary of the Kurds, is backing the Syrian National Army. They have already seized the city of Manbij and will likely continue to fight for controlled grounds. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operate within the southern buffer zone.
Implications
The ousting of Assad can very possibly lead to a weakened Russian presence in the Middle East. Though allegedly working out a deal with the rebels to maintain an operational military capacity, Russia has already removed several ships from the Tartus Naval Base. The fall of a Russian-backed dictator made Putin appear weak on the world stage. Because of this, he may attempt to overcompensate in the Ukraine.
As ISIS activity in the region has been on a steady uptick, it is likely that the group can gain footing. This is especially viable given that the Kurds have halted combating ISIS in order to protect themselves against Turkish airstrikes and militias. In recent days, America has conducted multiple strikes against ISIS.
Though Jolani claims he wants a united Syria, his Al-Qaeda roots must be called into question. A militant Islamic group running Syria will likely cause a humanitarian crisis for minorities such as the Yazidis and Druze. The power vacuum left in Syria mimics that of Libya post-Gaddafi. It is entirely plausible that Syria will follow in Libya’s footsteps and become a failed state.
Photo: Daraa, Syria by Mahmoud Sulaiman on Unsplash
